Today [Wednesday 4 March], a group of scientists have published findings that create the world’s first indicator of the climate change impacts on wildlife across Europe.
Published in the journal PloS ONE, scientists have shown a strong link between the already observed population changes of individual species and the projected range change associated with climate change, among a number of widespread and common European birds. By pulling both sets of data together, the team has compiled an indicator showing how climate change is affecting wildlife across Europe.
The findings of the report echo the current situation of certain species breeding in Wales. Lapwing are found to be among the worst affected species across Europe. They can be found in good numbers at the RSPB’s Ynys Hir reserve but are very scarce elsewhere in the region.
Peter Jones, RSPB Cymru Environmental Policy Officer said: “This paper shows that on the whole climate change is really bad news for wildlife, and reinforces the need both to strengthen the place of biodiversity in the Assembly Government’s revised scheme for sustainable development, and of the urgency of pressing ahead with practical measures to bring down Welsh greenhouse gas emissions, which are driving climate change.”
He adds: “We need to have measures that will cut emissions from across a range of sectors in Wales, including households, businesses, transport and agriculture. We all need to play our part, both for the future of our children and grandchildren and for wildlife.”
The paper and the indicator were produced by a team of scientists from the RSPB, Durham University, Cambridge University, the European Bird Census Council, the Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, the Czech Society for Ornithology, and Statistics Netherlands.
The European Union has adopted the indicator as an official measure of the impacts of climate change on the continent’s wildlife; the first indicator of its kind.
The RSPB’s Dr Richard Gregory was the paper’s lead author. Commenting on the findings he said: “We hear a lot about climate change, but our paper shows that its effects are being felt right now. The results show the number of species being badly affected outnumbers the species that might benefit by three to one.”
“Although we have only had a very small actual rise in global average temperature, it is staggering to realise how much change we are noticing in wildlife populations. If we don’t take our foot off the gas now, our indicator shows there will be many much worse effects to come. We must keep global temperature rise below the 2 degree ceiling; anything above this will create global havoc.”
Dr Stephen Willis, of Durham University, said: “Our indicator is the biodiversity equivalent of the FTSE index, only instead of summarising the changing fortunes of businesses, it summarises how biodiversity is changing due to climate change. Unlike the FTSE, which is currently at a six year low, the climate change index has been increasing each year since the mid-80s, indicating that climate is having an increasing impact on biodiversity.'
“Those birds we predict should fare well under climate change have been increasing since the mid-80s, and those we predict should do badly have declined over the same period. The worry is that the declining group actually consist of 75 per cent of the species we studied.”
The Climate Change Indicator combines two independent strands of work; bioclimate envelope-modelling, which predicts species range through climatic variables, and observed populations trends in European birds, derived from the Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme.
When a bird’s population changes in line with the projection, the indicator goes up. Species whose observed trend doesn’t fit the projection cause the indicator to decline.
Of the 122 species included 30 are projected to increase their range; while the remaining 92 species are anticipated to decrease their range.
Dr Gregory added "This new work emphasises again the role played by skilled amateur birdwatchers right across Europe in advancing our understanding of the environment and the growing threat posed by climate change.”